The Importance of the 2018 Rajasthan Election
The 2018 Rajasthan election is significant and eagerly awaited for several reasons. Rajasthan marks the last state to go to polls before the General Election in 2019. Thus, the mandate of Rajasthan will provide a rough idea about the mood of the people. This will act as a base for political analysts and trend analysts to decipher the roadmap for 2019 and will give a topic for debate for news houses: "Are the people of India happy with the Modi Government or not?"
The Political Equation of Rajasthan
One of the most thrilling aspects of this election is the political equation of Rajasthan. For the last 25 years, Rajasthan has shown a trend of anti-incumbency. The last man who actually served consecutive terms was Bhairon Singh Shekhawat in 1993, when he was the chief minister from 1990 to 1992. After a year-long president's rule, he was elected as chief minister for a full-fledged five years. Since then, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje have alternated their duties every five years.
Congress's Confidence and Internal Struggles
Due to historical events, Congress is confident of overthrowing the Vasundhara Government and forming their own. However, they have not showcased their chief minister candidate, causing internal strife within the party. The party is clearly divided: one half projects Sachin Pilot as their chief ministerial candidate, while the other half still supports Gehlot.
This division is evident in the party, confirmed by numerous incidents. Both groups have come close to physical confrontations on various occasions. There was a dilemma during the ticket distribution, and the list was released after much dilly-dallying, with many candidates chosen hastily. A prime example is Manvendra Singh (son of Jaswant Singh), who switched to Congress from BJP to contest against Vasundhara Raje in Jhalarapatan, a naive move that will likely ensure her victory and end his political career.
The Public's Discontent with the Vasundhara Government
On the other hand, the people of Rajasthan are not happy with the Vasundhara Government. Although people from Jhalawar and nearby areas are extremely satisfied with her efforts and ready to vote for her again, Vasundhara knows that votes from Jhalarapatan alone are not enough to conquer Jaipur.
The Role of Hanuman Beniwal's RLP
Adding more complexity to the equation is Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP). The RLP will act as a "vote-cutter" in Rajasthan. Since there is no space for a third party at the moment, his party will cut votes from both Congress and BJP, especially the Jat votes. Unfortunately, caste plays a vital role in Rajasthan politics. Even in this election, tickets were distributed based on caste. Traditionally, Jats were considered a vote bank for Congress, while Rajputs were a vote bank for BJP.
The Unpredictable Mood of Rajasthan
Predicting the mood of Rajasthan is never easy for analysts. Even in 2014, when BJP's return to power seemed certain, the mandate surprised many when BJP stormed into power with 163 seats out of a total of 200. With the current complications, trend experts are scratching their heads before making final calls.
Conclusion
All these factors make Rajasthan a battlefield for all parties, where none is a clear favorite. On 7th December, Rajasthan—the biggest state of India—will come out in the bitter cold to cast their valuable votes for Rajasthan Election 2018. One party has a leader but faces gross anti-incumbency, while the other party has no leader and no face, leaving the people in a dilemma about their choice. However, I foresee a marginal win for BJP, likely paving the way for Vasundhara to become chief minister for the third time. There is also a possibility of a new face in BJP or a hung assembly with Congress as the favorite party, in which case Ashok Gehlot might become the Chief Minister instead of Sachin Pilot.